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ACUS01 KWNS 031929

SWODY1

SPC AC 031927



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024



Valid 032000Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA...



...SUMMARY...

Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts

will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity,

and across central Florida.



...Discussion...

Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder

of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this

update.



The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to

reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado

probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for

ongoing convection).



..Goss.. 04/03/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/



...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon...

A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward

through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate

northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low

(GA/north FL to VA).  Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected

along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move

just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight.  Along and

southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected

from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for

additional thunderstorm development by midday.  The warm sector will

be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and

sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells

capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70

mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this

afternoon.



...North/central FL this afternoon...

A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread

southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 

50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the

warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the

upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F.  This

will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential

for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments,

and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations

and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. 

Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the

storms move from central toward south FL.



...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening...

A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the

Pacific Northwest coast.  East of the trough, a gradual increase in

midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening,

as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer

baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID.  Surface heating/mixing and

modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles

with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient

deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms.  The net result

should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated

strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail

(0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this

afternoon/evening.



$$