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ACUS03 KWNS 040730

SWODY3

SPC AC 040729



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will

be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday

afternoon and evening.



...Central and Southern Plains...

An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday

morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The

associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90

to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the

trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and

central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist

axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and

40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in

place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms

developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This

convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the

early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. 



As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central

Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to

70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with

strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support

the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited

moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat

marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.

Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection

moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks.



..Broyles.. 04/04/2024



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