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ACUS02 KWNS 050546

SWODY2

SPC AC 050545



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be

possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday

afternoon and evening.



...Central and Southern Plains...

An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday

morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The

associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving

northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the

surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western

Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central

Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to

increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast

Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale

ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains.

This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and

surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong

thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon.

This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains

during the late afternoon and early evening.



Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening

suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be

enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach

the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central

Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse

are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to

around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the

stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and

steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for

isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat,

there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude.



..Broyles.. 04/05/2024



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