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ACUS03 KWNS 050730

SWODY3

SPC AC 050729



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO

AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be

possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward

into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could

also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.



...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee

Valleys...

An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid

Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into

the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid

Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid

Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of

low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending

southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this

moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis

during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong

large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z

Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km

shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast

to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally

severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and

western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early

evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is

greatest.



Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the

lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should

result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is

expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750

J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep

low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind

gusts.



..Broyles.. 04/05/2024



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