####018002371####
ACUS48 KWNS 050901

SWOD48

SPC AC 050859



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 081200Z - 131200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...

The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an

upper-level low across the Desert Southwest on Monday. The low is

forecast to move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday

and into the southern Plains on Wednesday. During this period,

mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly across the southern

Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches,

low-level moisture will return northward into the southern Plains,

and moderate instability/deep-layer shear will likely be in place

from central, east and north Texas eastward into the Louisiana. This

will be the favored area for severe thunderstorm development from

Monday afternoon to Tuesday night.



On Wednesday, the upper-level low, and an associated cold front, is

forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front,

low-level moisture is expected to be maximized from east Texas

eastward to the central Gulf Coast. Some models, including the ECMWF

and GFS, show potential for the development of a large MCS across

the lower Mississippi Valley. These solutions suggest that

instability and deep-layer shear will support a severe threat

Wednesday afternoon and evening. 



...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...

On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move

eastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the southern Appalachians. Ahead of

the system, a moist airmass is expected to be in place from the Gulf

Coast states and Tennessee Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic

Seaboard. As a cold front moves eastward across the Southeast,

thunderstorm development may take place along and ahead of the front

during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Instability

and deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to support a

severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this

range in the Day to 4 to 8 period, concerning the timing of the

upper-level trough and positioning of the cold front. For this

reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat at

this time.



..Broyles.. 04/05/2024