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ACUS01 KWNS 051630

SWODY1

SPC AC 051629



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 051630Z - 061200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.



...Northern Rockies...

Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the

Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest

moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered

thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally

focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon,

and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming

into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could

allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but

organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.



...Coastal Southern California...

Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within

the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough,

where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to

-30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms

could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California

coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited

boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred

J/kg MUCAPE at most).



..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/05/2024



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