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ACUS03 KWNS 060729

SWODY3

SPC AC 060729



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF

THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible from early

afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of

Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana.

Large to very large hail appears to the primary threat.



...Synopsis...

A mid/upper low will remain anchored over the Upper Midwest while a

separate shortwave trough digs across the Southwest, reaching the

border area near northwest Mexico Tuesday morning. Low-level warm

theta-e advection will persist across much of the south-central

states through the period. The primary low-level jet should be

centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX and LA. Mid-level

height falls attendant to the Southwest trough should overspread the

west TX vicinity near the end of the period. 



...Southern Great Plains...

Low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should

yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the

northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer

developing across west TX. Guidance does differ with how quickly

this development will spread north during the day from central/east

TX and LA, yielding uncertainty with a potential corridor of higher

coverage/intensity severe threat. But the impinging of steep

mid-level lapse rates coupled with very fast upper-level flow, which

will foster a rather elongated hodograph within the largest portion

of the buoyancy profile, should support a threat for large to very

large hail. However, convective mode will probably be messy with

clustering likely dominating. Along the western fringes of the

overall convective plume, the highest chance of very large hail

should exist.



Additional/separate areas of convective development should be

focused closer to the dryline/effective warm front in west TX into

southwest OK during the evening, and overnight/early morning

Tuesday. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains

convectively undisturbed should build through the period as

mid-level lapse rates become very steep and moist advection

continues northwestward. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior

runs in developing convection across west-central/northwest TX by

12Z Tuesday, which should be within an environment conductive to

very large hail.



..Grams.. 04/06/2024



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