####018002006####
ACUS48 KWNS 060900

SWOD48

SPC AC 060859



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024



Valid 091200Z - 141200Z



...DISCUSSION...

An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week

before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest

will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico

border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave

should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley,

before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave

trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs,

extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region.

Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will

support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of

central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be

weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant

deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich

boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area

focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys.



D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days,

given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent.

Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating

in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly

sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the

troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area

farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF

ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude

of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within

a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future

severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of

the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday.



..Grams.. 04/06/2024