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ACUS48 KWNS 130859

SWOD48

SPC AC 130858



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0358 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024



Valid 161200Z - 211200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...D4/Tuesday...

A deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains at 12Z Tuesday

should gradually progress east-northeast to the Upper MS Valley by

early Wednesday. An intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts)

from northwest TX into southern KS should move east across the Ozark

Plateau before weakening Tuesday night as it reaches the Lower OH

Valley. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south

of the surface low will move farther east faster near the cyclone,

but slow and stall farther south over the Ark-La-Tex.



Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday

afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense

mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the

Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer

low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A

broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of

higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as

mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy

plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4

convection.



...D5/Wednesday...

Latest guidance suggest some severe threat should persist into early

D5 given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the deep

surface cyclone occludes and dampens over the Great Lakes. The

northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western

Gulf should be further confined relative to D4. Conditionally, the

central OH Valley vicinity appears to have the best opportunity to

destabilize in the wake of late D4-early D5 convection and overlap

with the stronger flow fields. This area will be monitored for a

possible severe weather highlight in the next outlook cycle.



...D6/Thursday...

With a broad upper trough becoming established over the Upper

Midwest, a building surface anticyclone over the Great Plains should

support a reinforcing cold front impinging on the rich western Gulf

moisture plume over parts of TX into AR/LA. Some severe potential

may evolve given increasingly larger CAPE compared to prior days,

but overall shear profiles appear modest.



..Grams.. 04/13/2024