####018018735#### FXPN30 KWNC 211544 PMDEPH Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook 2026 NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM EDT Thu 21 May 2026 Note: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on the internet at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov NOAA 2026 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook Issued 21 May 2026 This 2026 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration /NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center /CPC/, and is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from NOAAs National Hurricane Center /NHC/, Central Pacific Hurricane Center /CPHC/, and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory /AOML/. The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140W and north of the equator. The central Pacific covers the North Pacific from 140W to the International Date Line. Interpretation of NOAAs Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. Preparedness Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane /or tropical storm/ to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The Federal Emergency Management Agency /FEMA/ through www.ready.gov /English/ and www.listo.gov /Spanish/, the NHC, the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites. NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, and those patterns are usually only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall. Nature of this outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated "likely" ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10'seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Years with similar levels of activity can have dramatically different impacts. This outlook is based on model forecasts, and on predictions of large-scale factors and conditions that are known to strongly influence seasonal eastern and central Pacific hurricane activity. The outlook also takes into account uncertainties inherent in such outlooks. Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook 1. Predicting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation /ENSO/ phases, which include El Nino and La Nina events and ENSO-neutral and their specific impacts on eastern Pacific hurricane activity is an ongoing scientific challenge facing scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have more uncertainty than those made closer to the peak of the East Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane season /July-September: JAS/. 2. Predicting the combined impacts associated with the ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation /PDO/, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation /AMO/ remains a challenge, especially when they have different temporal variability that sometimes results in competing influences. 3. Many combinations of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes can occur for the same general set of environmental conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given signal may be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity. 4. Shorter-term weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can develop and persist for weeks or months, affecting seasonal hurricane activity. 2026 Eastern and Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook Summary a. Predicted activity in the eastern Pacific NOAAs 2026 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates an above-normal season is most likely /70 percent chance/. There is a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions /https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Background.html/ of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140W and north of the equator. The 2026 outlook calls for a 70 percent probability for each of the following ranges of activity: - 15-22 Named Storms - 9-14 Hurricanes - 5-9 Major Hurricanes - Accumulated Cyclone Energy /ACE/ range of 120-190 percent of the median. The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70 percent of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges are centered above the 1991-2020 averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. b. Predicted activity in the central Pacific NOAAs 2026 central Pacific hurricane season outlook indicates an above-normal season is likely for the central Pacific. The 2026 outlook calls for a 70 percent probability for the following range of activity: 5-13 combined named storms and tropical depressions. Near-normal activity for the central Pacific ranges from 2-5 for the combined number of named storms and tropical depressions. The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70 percent of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges are centered above 1991-2020 average of 4.4 combined named storms and tropical depressions The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th. The central Pacific hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. The peak months of the season are July-August-September /JAS/. There will be no further updates to these outlooks. c. Reasoning behind the outlooks Two primary factors are expected to contribute to an above-normal 2026 hurricane season across the eastern and central Pacific basins, as follows: 1/ The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates El Nino conditions are expected throughout the hurricane season. The ENSO influence on eastern and central Pacific hurricane activity is highly dependent upon the background sea surface temperature /SST/ patterns across the eastern tropical Pacific and the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region /MDR/. For 2026, the tropical Pacific is most likely to experience a moderate or stronger El Nino. The El Nino conditions and lack of strong forcings /SSTs near normal/ in the Atlantic relatively normal Atlantic are likely to support higher levels of activity in the East Pacific. Strong El Nino conditions are typically associated with dramatically elevated levels of activity in the central Pacific. 2/ The latest monthly SST anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral conditions, a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation /PDO/ structure, and North Atlantic SSTs just slightly above-normal for much of the basin. The transition to El Nino will likely shift the projection onto the PDO toward zero or even into positive PDO territory. Historically, this combination has resulted in more activity for the eastern and central Pacific. DISCUSSION Forecast 2026 activity 1/ Eastern Pacific NOAAs 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates an above-normal season is most likely /70 percent chance/. There is a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. The 2026 eastern Pacific hurricane season is predicted to produce /with a 70 percent probability for each range/ 15-22 named storms, of which 9-14 are expected to become hurricanes, and 5-9 of those are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered above the 1991-2020'seasonal averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAAs Accumulated Cyclone Energy /ACE/ index , which accounts for the combined intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. This 2026 eastern Pacific outlook indicates a 70 percent chance that the ACE range will be 120-190 percent of the median. An ACE value of 80 percent-120 percent of the median indicates a near-normal season. Values above this range reflect an above-normal season, and values below this range reflect a below-normal season. 2/ Central Pacific The 2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is likely. The outlook calls for 5-13 tropical cyclones of at least tropical depression strength. ACE is not predicted for the central Pacific as some seasons have near zero activity. Predictions of the location, number, timing, and intensity of hurricane landfalls are ultimately related to the daily weather patterns which determine storm genesis locations and steering patterns. These patterns are not predictable weeks or months in advance. As a result, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this season. Science behind the Outlooks NOAAs eastern and central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlooks are based on predictions of the main atmospheric and oceanic factors and their associated relationships to seasonal hurricane activity, as well as direct output from numerical models. The outlook is based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System /CFS/, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab /GFDL/ HiFLOR and SPEAR-MED modes, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble /NMME/, the United Kingdom Met Office /UKMET/ GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting /ECMWF/ Seas5 model. ENSO forecasts are also provided from the NMME dynamical models which are compiled by NOAAs CPC. NOAAs 2026 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook reflect the following atmospheric and oceanic factors: 1/ El Nino conditions are expected /96 percent; Fig 2/, with a 66 percent chance of a moderate or stronger event during JAS. A moderate or stronger event is defined by a Relative Oceanic Nino Index /RONI/ value 1.0C. Many of the models have monthly Nino 3.4 values in the strong to very strong range by JAS. El Nino conditions lead to more hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific. 2/ The predicted SST anomaly patterns across the eastern Pacific hurricane region indicate above-average SSTs with near-average SSTs across the Atlantic MDR. SST anomalies in the regions where many eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes tend to form /110W - 140W/ are much warmer than average /0.5 to 1.5C/. The predicted pattern would not project strongly onto either phase of the PDO , so the overall projection is small. Below-normal vertical wind shear is predicted over the central tropical Pacific, which is historically associated with more activity in both the eastern and central Pacific. a. El Nino likely The weekly relative SSTs are currently slightly above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The Nino 3.4 index has shown a substantial warming trend since December 2025 . The wind and outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the central Pacific are also reflecting a breakdown of the atmospheric response to last winters forcings of a weak La Nina. Looking forward, model-predicted SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region indicate El Nino conditions throughout the hurricane season. The dynamical model average indicates a moderate or stronger El Nino through the late summer, with a further amplification through autumn of 2026. The official NOAA ENSO outlook from May of 2026 indicates a 96 percent chance that El Nino conditions will occur during the hurricane season, and a near 0 percent chance that La Nina conditions could be in place during the peak months /JAS/ of the season. The ENSO outlook this year shows higher confidence than at the same point in 2025, and forecasts of El Nino or La Nina events do often have higher confidence than that of ENSO-neutral. El Nino conditions are associated with large increases in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific. For the eastern Pacific, El Nino years average 13-18 named storms and about 30 more ACE points on average than La Nina years. For the central Pacific, average activity during El Nino years ranges from 2-8 tropical depressions and storms, while during La Nina years typical activity ranges from 0-4. b. Eastern North Pacific high- and low-activity eras In addition to year-to-year fluctuations, eastern Pacific hurricane activity exhibits variability on decadal and multi-decadal time scales /Fig 10/. Periods of decreased activity /such as 1971-1981 and 1995-2013/ are called low-activity eras, and periods of increased activity /such as 1982-1994/ are called high-activity eras, the differences in seasonal activity between these two eras for the eastern Pacific are considerable. High-activity eras average about 3 more named storms, 2.4 more hurricanes, 2.4 more major hurricanes, and 60 percent more ACE, than low-activity eras. During high-activity eras, above-normal seasons occur about three times more frequently /63 percent of seasons compared to 20 percent/, and below-normal seasons are about four times less frequent /11 percent compared to 43 percent/. High- and low-activity eras in the eastern Pacific hurricane region are related to global patterns of SST anomalies that change slowly and last for many years. It is upon these patterns that the inter-annual ENSO signal overlays. One such pattern is the PDO. The PDO spans most of the North Pacific Ocean, and is associated with decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity. The positive /negative/ phase of the PDO tends to be associated with high- /low-/ activity eras. Another SST pattern is the AMO, and when linked to wind patterns can be more broadly described as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability /AMV/, measured through the Atlantic Meridional Mode /AMM/. The cold /warm/ phase of the AMO increases the likelihood of a high- /low-/ activity era. The AMO helps to explain the inverse relationship in activity between the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins, with a warm AMO/positive AMM favoring increased Atlantic activity and decreased eastern Pacific activity. The AMO is slightly positive this year with a mix of warm and cool SSTs in the North Atlantic. The 1982-1994 high-activity era was associated with a cold AMO and a positive PDO, which was then followed by a low-activity era from 1995-2013 that featured a warm AMO and negative PDO. The period from 2014-2019 exhibited higher activity and primarily featured a strong positive PDO. Such a short period of years would not define an activity era. The variability in recent years points more to intraseasonal signals overriding the long-term signals. Of the years when the August PDO was negative, approximately 70 percent of those years had near normal or below normal activity /18 of 24 since 1971/. The current value of the PDO is -0.73. The current SST patterns from the tropics to 60N do not strongly resemble positive nor negative PDO states, as the transition from La Nina to El Nino is underway. In the eastern tropical Pacific, the SST patterns are more similar to high-activity era patterns and a positive PDO, but an area of anomalously warm waters in the mid-latitudes of the Pacific Ocean resembles a negative PDO . On average, the PDO increases by +0.85 from April to September /based on 17 occurrences when JAS is in El Nino. The weak projection onto the PDO and forecasts of a moderate to strong El Nino favor the tropical activity being dominated more by the ENSO status this year. c. Uncertainties in the outlooks Many of the models indicated higher than normal values of vertical wind shear off the southern coast of Mexico. Some years, stronger storms develop and intensify near the coast of Mexico, contributing to high overall activity. If the storms develop further south, near the predicted area of relatively low vertical wind shear, the systems could have long tracks and contribute to a very busy season in the eastern Pacific. If the vertical wind shear is higher, further from the coast, it could force more activity toward the central Pacific. El Nino conditions are expected, but could develop slightly later than currently anticipated or with a lower strength. Years with late developing El Nino conditions can still be very busy sea sons, 2018 and 2023 demonstrate that in the recent period. NOAA FORECASTERS Climate Prediction Center Matt Rosencrans, Physical Scientist; Matthew.Rosencrans@noaa.gov Dr. Hui Wang, Meteorologist; Hui.Wang@noaa.gov Dr. Daniel Harnos, Meteorologist; Daniel.Harnos@noaa.gov Lindsey Long, Meteorologist; Lindsey.Long@noaa.gov Nicholas Novella, Meteorologist; Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov National Hurricane Center Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov Central Pacific Hurricane Center Christopher Brenchley, Meteorologist, christopher.brenchley@noaa.gov Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov $$