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WTPZ45 KNHC 071444

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 AM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023

 

Infrared satellite imagery this morning indicates that easterly 

shear continues to impact Lidia. A recent AMSR-2 microwave pass 

showed the low-level center embedded along the eastern edge of the 

most intense deep convection. Based on a blend of subjective and 

objective intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS, 

respectively, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.



Lidia has begun its turn toward the northwest, and the storm is 

currently moving west-northwestward at approximately 4 kt. A slow 

turn to the north is expected during the next day or so, after which 

time it is expected to begin interacting with an approaching trough 

from the north. This interaction will result in an acceleration 

early next week toward the northeast and in the general direction 

of west-central Mexico. While some uncertainty exists in the 

forward speed forecast, the current forecast is very similar to the 

prior forecast and lies between the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. 

 

Easterly shear is forecast to remain strong and inhibit significant 

intensification through the weekend. During this time the NHC

intensity forecast shows little change. However, early next week 

the shear is expected to briefly relax as the storm begins to 

accelerate northeastward over warm sea-surface temperatures. During 

this time, Lidia is forecast to intensify to hurricane strength. Of 

note, southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the storm 

approaches Mexico, and the spread is quite large among the intensity 

guidance aids. The ECMWF and GFS global models both depict central 

pressures that suggest Lidia could maintain hurricane intensity, 

while other reliable statistical models and consensus aids are not 

as aggressive. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and 

near the center of the guidance envelope. Confidence in the 

intensity forecast is low considering the wide range of solutions, 

but interests in west-central Mexico should remain attentive to 

forecast updates in the coming days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  07/1500Z 16.2N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  08/0000Z 16.5N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  08/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  09/0000Z 17.9N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  09/1200Z 18.6N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 60H  10/0000Z 19.1N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  11/1200Z 21.6N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  12/1200Z 23.9N 102.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Berg