####018003599####
WTPZ45 KNHC 090245

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  24

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023

 

Lidia's convective structure has become somewhat less organized

since this afternoon. The cloud tops have warmed and there has been

an overall decrease in the deep convection near the center.  There 

were some arc clouds noted in late evening visible satellite 

images which suggests the system may have entrained some drier 

mid-level air.  Despite the recent loss of organization, the 

initial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is a blend of the 

various subjective and objective satellite estimates. 



It is interesting to note that simulated satellite imagery from 

the 18Z GFS and regional hurricane models showed a decrease in 

convection this evening, but they also indicated a return of the 

convection overnight, which is expected to lead to strengthening on 

Monday.  The upper-level winds over the system are forecast to 

become more conducive for strengthening while Lidia moves over 

slightly warmer SSTs on its approach to west-central Mexico.  Much 

of the dynamical model guidance calls for steady strengthening 

beginning tomorrow, and the latest NHC forecast shows a slightly 

higher peak intensity before landfall.  This is in good agreement 

within the latest HFIP corrected consensus model.  It should be 

mentioned that if Lidia is able to finally able to establish an 

inner core within the next 12-24 hours, this intensity forecast 

could be on the conservative side.  Rapid weakening is expected 

after Lidia moves inland over west-central Mexico.  A 72-hour point 

is provided for continuity but it is very likely that the cyclone 

will have dissipated by that time. 



Lidia is moving northward or 010 degrees at 6 kt.  A faster motion 

to the northeast and east-northeast is expected on Monday and 

Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the storm from 

the northwest.  The track guidance has not changed much this cycle, 

with the GFS still quite a bit faster than the remainder of the 

dynamical aids.  The NHC track forecast remains near the latest 

consensus models, and is very similar to the previous official 

forecast.  

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central

Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in

the watch areas beginning Tuesday.

 

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of 

Sinaloa, and coastal  portions of the state of Jalisco in western 

Mexico.



3.  A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south where 

the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of 

west-central Mexico.  

 

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current

conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California

peninsula during the next few days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  09/0300Z 18.2N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z 18.8N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z 19.4N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  10/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  11/0000Z 21.8N 106.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 60H  11/1200Z 23.7N 103.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 72H  12/0000Z 25.6N 100.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Brown