####018003556####
WTPZ45 KNHC 090844

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

300 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

 

Lidia's convective structure has improved during the last several 

hours with deep bursts of convection, and cold cloud tops near -90 

degrees Celsius at times. The low-level center has become embedded 

beneath this recent burst as well. There is a fairly large range of 

intensity estimates this advisory cycle, however. Subjective Dvorak 

satellite final-T intensity estimates are a T4.0/ 65 kts, from both 

TAFB and SAB. Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and 

AiDT are 51 kt and 61 kt, respectively. An ASCAT-B pass from a few 

hours ago depicted a much weaker wind field around 35 kt, although 

the convective pattern has markedly improved since that time. Using 

a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to an uncertain 

55 kt for this advisory. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are 

scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon, which will 

provide valuable in-situ data to bring clarity to Lidia's intensity.

 

Vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to relax over the 

next 24-36 hr while Lidia moves over warm sea surface temperatures 

on its approach to west-central Mexico.  Models are in fairly good 

agreement with this strengthening scenario, and Lidia is forecast 

to become a hurricane late today, with the peak intensity unchanged 

from the previous advisory of 85 kt when the system is near the 

coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HFIP 

corrected consensus model, on the higher side of the guidance. 

After Lidia makes landfall, rapid weakening is expected given the 

high terrain, and the system is now forecast to dissipate by 60 h.

 

Lidia is moving north-northeastward or 020 degrees at 4 kt.  A 

faster motion to the northeast and east-northeast is expected later 

today and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the 

system. The track guidance has shifted slightly south this 

cycle, with still some along-track timing differences with the GFS 

being the fastest.  The NHC track forecast has been nudged 

southward and lies near the various consensus aids.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central 

Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane 

Warning area on Tuesday, and hurricane and tropical storm 

conditions are possible in the watch areas beginning Tuesday.

 

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of

Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western

Mexico.

 

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south where

the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of

west-central Mexico.

 

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current

conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California

peninsula during the next few days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  09/0900Z 18.2N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  09/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  10/0600Z 19.4N 109.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  10/1800Z 20.7N 107.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  11/0600Z 22.6N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 60H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly