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WTPZ41 KNHC 090845

TCDEP1

 

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023

400 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023



Satellite images indicate that Max has become better organized, 

with a large burst of convection near the center and a well-defined 

banding feature in the southern semicircle of the storm.  Recent 

scatterometer data indicates maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the 

initial wind speed is set to 45 kt on this advisory.  Further 

strengthening is possible in a conducive environment before Max 

makes landfall later today.  Rapid weakening is then anticipated 

this evening over the high terrain of Mexico.  The new forecast is 

similar to the previous one, but a bit higher due to the initial 

intensity. 



Max has turned northward or 010/5 kt this morning, and this general 

motion is forecast until landfall later today.  The biggest 

change on this advisory is that the landfall of Max is expected to 

be sooner and farther east than before, which is consistent with 

recent trends and the latest model solutions. Max should dissipate 

over southern Mexico early on Tuesday.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions 

today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical 

Storm Warning remains in effect.

 

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  09/0900Z 16.8N 101.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  09/1800Z 17.5N 101.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR COAST

 24H  10/0600Z 18.7N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 36H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Blake