####018003329#### WTPZ45 KNHC 091433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Deep convection has been on the increase during the past several hours, but it is unclear if it has resulted in Lidia strengthening yet. Throughout Lidia's lifespan, there has been notable uncertainty in the initial intensity, and it is no different at the current time. The latest satellite intensity estimates span from 47 to 65 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, the ASCAT data mentioned in the previous discussion supported a lower wind speed estimate. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently en route to investigate Lidia, and the data they collect should provide very valuable information in estimating Lidia's intensity and structure. Lidia has made the expected turn to the northeast, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 045/5 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching Lidia should cause the storm to accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast later today through Tuesday. The models are in fair agreement on the overall path of Lidia, but there is still a significant spread in the timing of landfall with the GFS showing Lidia reaching the coast about 12 hours before the ECMWF shows landfall. The NHC track forecast continues to lie between those solutions and remains close to the various consensus models. Based on the forecast approach, Lidia will likely reach the coast by late Tuesday. The environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for strengthening. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and into a conducive upper-level wind pattern related to a favorable trough interaction for the system. The models show significant or rapid strengthening before Lidia reaches the coast, and the forecast continues to follow suit and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning Tuesday. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 18.5N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.0N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 23.1N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi