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WTPZ41 KNHC 091442

TCDEP1

 

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023

1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

 

Max has continued to intensify this morning as it nears landfall in 

Mexico. The overnight convection appears to have wrapped around the 

center, with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing a low-level 

cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel, suggesting formative inner-core 

features. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from 

TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The initial intensity was raised to 50 

kt at 12 UTC, and that will remain the intensity for this advisory. 

This value also is close to the latest UW CIMSS D-PRINT estimate. 

While not shown in the forecast below, Max could intensify a little 

more, and be near its max intensity at landfall, sometime in the 

next 3-6 hours. However, rapid weakening should begin by this 

evening as the surface circulation is quickly disrupted by the high 

rugged terrain of Mexico, with dissipation likely by tomorrow. 

 

Max appears to have started a north-northeastward motion this

morning, estimated at 030/4 kt. This motion is expected to continue

until the storm moves inland later this afternoon. As the storm

moves inland, the surface circulation will quickly become difficult

to track, though its mid-level remains and larger moisture plume

should push further inland into Mexico, even after the storm

dissipates by early on Tuesday.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions

today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical

Storm Warning remains in effect.

 

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  09/1500Z 17.1N 101.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 17.7N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Papin