####018003286#### WTPZ45 KNHC 092037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized. Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that an inner core is forming. In addition, a large curved band has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb. A combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is conservative. The aircraft data and recent satellite images suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous positions. Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain. Water vapor images show a mid- to upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward west-central Mexico. The main change for this forecast cycle is associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south of the previous estimates. Based on the initial position adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous prediction. This forecast is close to the consensus aids and roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower ECMWF run. Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening. Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is forecast. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning Tuesday. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi