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WTPZ41 KNHC 100243

TCDEP1

 

Tropical Depression Max Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162023

1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

 

After making landfall earlier today in southern Mexico, the 

satellite presentation of Max has degraded somewhat this evening, 

and the center of circulation has become more ill-defined. However, 

deep convection remains along and near the coast, which is likely 

producing flooding rainfall as the system moves over the higher

terrain of southern Mexico. Based on recent observations from 

coastal Mexico and satellite trends, Max is downgraded to a 

depression for this advisory, with the intensity set at 30 kt.



Max is moving north-northeastward at 030/6 kt and should continue 

on this trajectory until it dissipates late tonight or tomorrow. 

Once the system dissipates, the remnants of Max will continue 

to move north-northeastward and still have the potential to produce 

life-threatening flooding across the higher terrain of Mexico over 

the next day or so.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Max is forecast to continue producing gusty winds through 

tonight to portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

 

2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  10/0300Z 18.1N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z 18.8N 100.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 24H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Brown