####018003345####
WTPZ45 KNHC 100246

TCDEP5

 

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023

 

Lidia has become better organized this evening, with an increase in

deep convection and banding near the center.  An 0122 UTC SSMIS

microwave overpass revealed a well-defined mid-level center that

could be slight tilted from the low-level center.  The upper-level

outflow has also become a little better established over the western

portion of the system.  Subjective Dvorak data T-numbers from TAFB

and SAB are both T4.0 (65 kt), and the objective estimates are

close to that value as well.  Based on the increase in organization

and recent subjective and objective estimates, the initial

intensity is raised to 65 kt, making Lidia a hurricane.

 

The initial motion estimate is east-northeast or 065 kt degrees at

9 kt. Lidia should accelerate east-northeastward ahead of mid- to

upper-level trough approaching from the northwest.  On this

motion, the center of Lidia will approach the west-central coast of

Mexico on Tuesday.  This storm is forecast to move inland along

the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area

by Tuesday evening.  The track guidance is in good agreement, but

it has again trended slightly south.  The updated NHC forecast has

been nudged in that direction, and it lies close to the TVCE

multi-model consensus aid.

 

Low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the track of Lidia

is likely to allow for significant strengthening while the storm

heads toward west-central Mexico.  The global and regional

dynamical models nearly unanimously call for significant deepening

during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast

is a little higher than before.  This is near the upper-end of the

interpolated intensity guidance, but a little lower than the raw 

regional hurricane model output. Increasing shear near the time of 

landfall, and interaction with land after Lidia moves onshore is 

expected to result in rapid weakening and dissipation of the 

cyclone by 48 hours.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Lidia is now a hurricane and it is expected to continue to

strengthen as it approaches west-central Mexico on Tuesday.

Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane

Warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon.

 

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of

Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western

Mexico.

 

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of

where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of

west-central Mexico.

 

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current

conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California

peninsula during the next couple of days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  10/0300Z 18.2N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  11/0000Z 20.6N 105.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  11/1200Z 22.5N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 48H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Brown