####018003030####
WTPZ45 KNHC 100842

TCDEP5

 

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

300 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

 

Lidia continues to have robust burst of convection this morning,

with cold cloud tops near -90 degrees Celsius. The recent 

convective burst is near the well-defined mid-level core that was

depicted from an earlier SSMIS microwave pass. Subjective Dvorak

final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are T4.0 (65 kt) and T4.5 (77 kt),

respectively. UW-CIMSS objective estimates range between 70-77 kt as

well.  Based on the improved satellite imagery and recent

subjective and objective estimates, the initial intensity is raised

to 75 kt.

 

Lidia's estimated motion is east-northeast or 70 degrees at 10 kt. 

The hurricane should move faster to the east-northeast later today 

ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough advancing from the northwest.  

The center of Lidia will approach the west-central coast of Mexico 

later this afternoon and evening, with the system forecast to move 

inland along the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane 

warning area by tonight. The track guidance has once again trended 

southward this cycle. The NHC forecast has been nudged further south 

by about 20 n mi, and it lies close to the multi-model consensus 

aids.  

 

Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the

track of Lidia should allow for further strengthening up until 

landfall, consistent with the regional hurricane models and the 

global model suite.  While the 12 h intensity forecast of

90 kt is unchanged from the peak of the previous forecast (near the

upper-end of the intensity guidance), Lidia could intensify further 

up to landfall. Increasing shear and the high terrain of Mexico 

will result in rapid weakening after landfall and Lidia is expected 

to dissipate by 36 hours.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches

west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are

expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.

 

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of

Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western

Mexico.

 

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of

where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of

west-central Mexico.

 

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current

conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California

peninsula during the next couple of days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  10/0900Z 18.6N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  10/1800Z 19.5N 107.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  11/0600Z 21.1N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 36H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly