####018003345####
WTPZ45 KNHC 101432

TCDEP5

 

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  30

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

 

Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west-central Mexico. 

Microwave images from a few hours ago indicated that the hurricane 

has developed a well-defined inner core with an eyewall that is 

nearly closed.  Although an eye is not present in geostationary 

satellite images, the central dense overcast has become more 

circular during the last few hours.  The Dvorak estimates have 

increased and now range from 77 to 90 kt, and based on that data and 

the improvement in the system's organization, the initial intensity 

is increased to 85 kt.  This increase in wind speed makes Lidia a 

category 2 hurricane.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in route 

to investigate Lidia this afternoon, and will provide a better 

estimate of the hurricane's intensity.  The outer rain bands of 

Lidia are nearing Isla Las Marias and west-central Mexico, and 

conditions are expected to worsen in that region through the day.

 

Lidia is accelerating to the east-northeast, and the latest initial

motion is 070/13 kt.  The mid- to upper-level trough just to the

west of the hurricane will steer it quickly toward west-central

Mexico and the center should make landfall this evening.  However,

as noted above, weather conditions will deteriorate well before

then since most of the strong winds are east of the center.  The

NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one and

near the various consensus aids.

 

Additional strengthening is expected due to a combination of very

warm SSTs near 30 C and a favorable upper-level wind pattern.

Lidia will likely be near major hurricane strength when it reaches

the coast, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the

hurricane regional models, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON.  Rapid

weakening is expected once Lidia moves inland, and the hurricane is

expected to dissipate by late Wednesday over the rugged terrain of

central Mexico.

 

Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches

west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are

expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.

 

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of

Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western

Mexico.

 

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of

where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of

west-central Mexico.

 

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current

conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California

peninsula during the next couple of days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  10/1500Z 19.2N 107.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 36H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi