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WTPZ45 KNHC 110242

TCDEP5

 

Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  32

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023

1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

 

Lidia is estimated to have made landfall around 2350 UTC near Las 

Penitas in the Mexican state of Jalisco.  Satellite imagery showed 

an eye briefly clearing and warming before reaching the coastline, 

and the maximum sustained wind speed was estimated to be 120 kt.  

Since that time, the structure of Lidia has degraded.  The eye is 

no longer apparent and convection around the center is no longer 

symmetric.  The initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 

90 kt.  Continued rapid weakening is expected for the next day 

while Lidia moves over the elevated terrain in west-central Mexico. 

Model guidance shows the storm will dissipate within 24 hours, and 

this is reflected in the official intensity forecast.



The hurricane's motion is estimated to be 60/15 kt.  Lidia is 

expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow of a mid- to 

upper-level trough located over northern Mexico. Minor adjustments 

have been made to the NHC track forecast.  Even as Lidia dissipates, 

remnant moisture could result in flooding rainfall and possible 

mudslides as it moves inland.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Lidia is moving inland over west-central Mexico as a hurricane. 

Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected along the path 

of the storm overnight.

 

2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban

flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain

across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of

Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western

Mexico.

 

3. Dangerous water levels along the coast of west-central Mexico 

will gradually subside overnight.

 

4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current

conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California

peninsula through Wednesday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  11/0300Z 20.6N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z 22.1N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci