####018002299####
WTNT44 KNHC 140836

TCDAT4

 

Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192023

500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2023

 

Sean has been producing bursts of deep convection overnight that 

have obscured the center of the cyclone.  The bursts do not appear 

to have much organization, and the latest subjective and objective 

satellite intensity estimates range from about 25 to 40 kt. The 

initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35 kt, which is in 

agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number of T2.5 (35 kt). 

However, this could be generous. 



Sean is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at about 7 kt. 

The cyclone should turn northwestward today around the southwestern 

periphery of a narrow ridge over the eastern-central Atlantic.  A 

turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Sunday when 

Sean weakens and becomes more vertically shallow.  There is a fair 

amount of spread in the track guidance that is related to how 

quickly Sean weakens.  The ECMWF which is the weaker of the 

dynamical models takes the cyclone on a more southerly track.  The 

NHC forecast is a little south of the previous advisory, especially 

at 48 and 60 hours, and lies near the middle of the guidance 

envelope.  

 

Sean is forecast to encounter an increasingly dry mid-level 

environment during the next couple of days, which should cause 

gradual weakening during that time.  The global model guidance 

indicates that Sean will struggle to produce deep convection by 

later today and Sunday, and it seems likely that the system will 

degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner.  The 

circulation is expected to open up into a trough in 60 to 72 hours, 

and dissipation is indicated in the official forecast by day 3.  





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  14/0900Z 15.4N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  14/1800Z 16.1N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  15/0600Z 16.9N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  15/1800Z 17.5N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  16/0600Z 17.9N  48.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  16/1800Z 18.1N  50.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Brown