####018001925####
WTNT44 KNHC 151443

TCDAT4

 

Tropical Depression Sean Discussion Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192023

1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2023

 

Satellite imagery depicts that Sean has regained convection once

again this morning. Visible imagery shows that the low-level center

is displaced on the northern side of the recent convective burst.

The latest Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) from TAFB is T2.0/30 kt,

with the trend of the data-T numbers continuing to fall. A recent

scatterometer pass indicated peak winds around 20-25 kt. Given the

satellite-derived winds and lowering Data-T Dvorak intensity

estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt for this

advisory.

 

Sean continues to produce intermittent convective bursts as it

remains in a low vertical wind shear environment over warm

sea surface temperatures. However, dry mid-level air will

eventually cause the convection to become less persistent and lose

organization. As the system decays, Sean should become a remnant

low, which could occur tonight. The NHC official forecast is

similar to the previous, although it is also possible, that Sean

remains a depression until the circulation opens up into a trough.

 

The depression has turned west-northwest with an estimated motion of

290/9 kt. As the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow, a

turn more westward is forecast within the low-level steering flow.

The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the

corrected and simple consensus aids.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  15/1500Z 17.7N  47.1W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  16/0000Z 18.0N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  16/1200Z 18.2N  50.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  17/0000Z 18.5N  53.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly