####018002669####
WTPZ42 KNHC 212039

TCDEP2

 

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023

300 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

 

Norma made landfall along the southern tip of the Baja California 

peninsula just west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas around 2015 UTC with 

estimated maximum winds of 70 kt. The center of the tropical cyclone 

has become exposed this afternoon, as increasing southerly shear 

stripped away the associated deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane 

Hunter aircraft sampled Norma shortly before landfall and found 

hurricane-force SFMR winds in the northwest quadrant, with a peak of 

73 kt. A center dropsonde supported a minimum pressure of around 974 

mb. Assuming some continued weakening since the plane departed, the 

landfall and advisory intensity is set at 70 kt.

 

With Norma becoming a more shallow vortex, it has slowed down and 

turned north-northeastward (15 degrees/5 kt). The cyclone will move 

across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight, 

with continued weakening expected due to the negative influences of 

increasing shear, drier air, and land interaction. Norma should 

emerge over the southern Gulf of California as a tropical storm 

early Sunday, then move northeastward and make landfall along the 

coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning 

area. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly north 

of the previous prediction, in agreement with the latest multi-model 

consensus aids. Once Norma moves inland, it will quickly dissipate 

over the rugged terrain of western Mexico.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions

of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into

Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along

with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

 

2. Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few hours within

the Hurricane Warning area over the far southern Baja California

peninsula.

 

3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions

of the west coast of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area

beginning early Sunday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  21/2100Z 23.1N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  22/0600Z 23.7N 109.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

 24H  22/1800Z 24.5N 109.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER

 36H  23/0600Z 24.8N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST

 48H  23/1800Z 25.1N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 60H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Reinhart