####018002033####
WTNT41 KNHC 240233

TCDAT1

 

Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212023

1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

 

It has been a challenge to find the center of the depression this 

evening. Surface observations from Bluefields Airport in Nicaragua 

indicated that the center of the depression likely moved northeast 

of the observing station earlier this evening, but pressures in the 

area were not particularly low. Since then, a robust mid-level 

circulation has been visible in shortwave-infrared imagery, but it 

isn't clear if this extends to the surface. ASCAT data is expected 

within the next couple of hours, which should provide clarity over 

whether the center of the depression has reformed under the 

mid-level circulation, or if has already moved inland. TAFB and SAB 

Dvorak estimates still support an intensity near 25 kt.



Once inland, the depression should quickly weaken and dissipate. 

However, its worth noting that if the center is still over water 

and remains there for any period of time overnight, some slight 

strengthening could occur since the environment is otherwise 

favorable for intensification. The long-term estimated motion is 

around 310/4 kt, but this is highly uncertain. The depression, or 

its remnants, are forecast to continue northwestward tonight, and 

then generally head westward toward the eastern Pacific after that. 



 

KEY MESSAGES:

 

1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions

of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading

into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to

produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in

areas of higher terrain.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/0300Z 12.4N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  24/1200Z 13.1N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster D. Zelinsky