####018002962####
WTPZ43 KNHC 242056

TCDEP3

 

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023

400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

 

Otis has undergone very rapid intensification today.  An eye became

apparent on visible satellite images only a few hours ago, embedded 

in very deep convection.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft

penetrated the eye around 1900 UTC and again around 2000 UTC, and 

found that the maximum sustained winds had increased to near 110 kt 

over a very small area near the center, while the central pressure 

remarkably dropped around 10 mb from the first to the second center 

fix.  The intensity of Otis is well above the Dvorak satellite 

estimates, and again underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance 

in monitoring hurricanes.

 

Otis should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment

that will be conducive for further strengthening later today and

tonight.  Vertical wind shear should not be too strong, with SSTs

near 30 deg C.  Based on the observed changes, the short-term  

official intensity forecast remains above the model guidance.  The 

system is now forecast to be at extremely dangerous Category 4 

hurricane status by the time it reaches the coast of southern Mexico 

late tonight or tomorrow morning.  After landfall, the system 

should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

 

The hurricane continues on about the same heading, or around 330/7

kt.  For the next couple of days, Otis should move between a

mid-level ridge to the east and northeast and a trough to its

northwest.  The official track forecast is about the same as the

previous one and is a little faster than the dynamical consensus.

On this track, the center of the hurricane will make landfall

within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Wednesday.



Key Messages:

 

1. Otis is forecast to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 

hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight 

or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property 

should be rushed to completion.



2. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce 

significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the 

center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be 

accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest

Mexico this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban 

flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/2100Z 15.3N  99.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND

 36H  26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 48H  26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 60H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch