####018002839####
WTPZ44 KNHC 290242

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

 

The organization of the depression has not improved this evening.

The shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished and is mostly

confined to the northern and western portions of the circulation.

Recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave images suggest the

depression has not moved much since earlier today. Based on the

earlier scatterometer data, current structure, and a T2.0 subjective

Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

 

The depression is currently within weak steering currents, and

little net motion is expected through Sunday while the system

meanders offshore of Central America. By early next week, the flow

associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern

Caribbean Sea should steer the system generally northeastward

towards Central America. While the track models agree in principle

on this scenario, it remains unclear how close the cyclone will get

to the coast in 60-72 h and whether or not it will move inland.

Given this uncertainty, interests in Guatemala and El Salvador

should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as only small

track changes could result in greater land impacts. By the middle of

next week, the flow behind a cold frontal passage to the north

should push the cyclone southwestward and away from land. The

updated NHC track forecast lies between the previous prediction and

the latest multi-model consensus aids.

 

Given the current structure of the depression, only modest

strengthening is forecast in the near term. Once the system becomes

better organized, the 28-29 deg C waters and abundant mid-level

moisture should allow for more intensification in 24-48 h within a

weak to moderate shear environment. This is shown by most of the

intensity models, and the NHC forecast remains on the higher end of

the guidance envelope, closest to the GFS and HFIP corrected

consensus (HCCA). Later in the period, increasing deep-layer shear

and potential land interaction should result in some weakening,

although this portion of the forecast is more dependent on the

future track of the system.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  29/0300Z 10.6N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  29/1200Z 10.8N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  30/0000Z 11.2N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  30/1200Z 11.5N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  31/0000Z 12.1N  91.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 60H  31/1200Z 12.8N  90.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  01/0000Z 12.9N  89.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  02/0000Z 10.5N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  03/0000Z  9.0N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Reinhart