####018003233####
WTPZ44 KNHC 291450

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

 

The depression is becoming a bit better organized this morning, 

with a curved band seeming to wrap around the apparent center.   

While overnight satellite showed multiple low-level swirls within 

the large circulation envelope, it seems like the system is 

consolidating now near a large burst of convection.  Satellite 

estimates still support an initial intensity of about 30 kt for this 

advisory.

 

There hasn't been a lot of net movement with the system, with 

perhaps a slight north-northeastward motion recently.  The system 

should begin to move northeastward or east-northeastward at a slow 

pace later today as it becomes more steered by the flow associated 

with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean.  

This pattern will likely take the system near the coasts of El 

Salvador or Guatemala later on Tuesday.  There has been a slight 

southeastward trend in the model guidance, and the NHC forecast is 

nudged in that direction.  After that time, the synoptic pattern is 

unchanged with a strong cold front expected to move across Mexico 

and the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the cyclone to reverse its course 

and head southwestward away from land. The NHC track forecast is 

again a little slower than the previous one at long range.  

Confidence in the details of the track forecast remains low since 

the forward speed of the cyclone and timing of the cold front will 

make the difference in whether or not the system moves inland over 

Central America or remains offshore.

 

If the low-level center can continue consolidating, then some 

slow strengthening should begin later today.  More significant 

intensification is possible Monday assuming a central core can 

develop, with almost all guidance showing the system near hurricane 

strength on Tuesday. After that, strong vertical wind shear, 

possible land interaction, and intrusions of dry air and stable air 

will likely cause a weakening trend.  Very little change was made 

to the intensity forecast, which remains near the 

corrected-consensus aids.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and

urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain

along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,

through Wednesday.

 

2. The depression is expected to strengthen as it approaches

Guatemala and El Salvador, and tropical storm or hurricane watches

could be required for portions of those areas later today.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  29/1500Z 11.0N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  30/0000Z 11.2N  92.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  30/1200Z 11.6N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  31/0000Z 11.9N  91.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  31/1200Z 12.2N  90.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 60H  01/0000Z 12.4N  89.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  01/1200Z 11.8N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  02/1200Z 10.7N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  03/1200Z  9.5N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Blake