####018003553####
WTPZ44 KNHC 292056

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023



Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the 

depression during the past several hours, mostly on the northwestern 

side of the circulation.  A scatterometer pass at 1600 UTC, however, 

showed only 25-30 kt winds a fair distance northeast of the center.  

With the subjective Dvorak estimates also 30 kt or less, the initial 

wind speed will stay 30 kt on this advisory.  



The scatterometer data suggested that the center was a bit southeast 

of previous estimates, with only a northeastward drift noted during 

the past 24 hours.  The depression should begin to move more 

steadily northeastward or east-northeastward by early Monday due to 

steering flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the 

northwestern Caribbean.  This pattern will likely take the system 

near the coast of El Salvador late on Tuesday, close enough 

to warrant a Tropical Storm Watch, though most of the guidance 

keeps the system offshore. The NHC forecast is shifted southeast of 

the previous one, similar to the guidance trend. A strong cold front 

is expected to push the system west-southwestward away from Central 

America by late Wednesday. Confidence in the details of the track 

forecast remains low since the model guidance has been inconsistent 

with the track of the system, as well as the dependence on the 

incoming cold front.



Gradual intensification is forecast during the next couple of days 

with the system moving over warm waters in light or moderate shear. 

Increasingly southeasterly shear is noted in all of the global 

models on Tuesday, so the NHC forecast will level off then, but is 

still close to hurricane strength.  The latest guidance has come 

down a bit, though since the corrected-consensus guidance is 

unchanged, the NHC forecast is about the same as the previous one.   

At long range, strong vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry and 

stable air will likely cause a weakening trend. 



 

Key Messages:

 

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and

urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain

along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,

through Wednesday.

 

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into 

Wednesday along portions of the coast of El Salvador where a 

Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Interests elsewhere along 

the Pacific coast of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua should 

monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or 

warnings could be needed tonight or tomorrow.



3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions 

of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, 

beginning on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause 

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  29/2100Z 10.8N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  30/0600Z 10.9N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  30/1800Z 11.2N  91.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  31/0600Z 11.7N  90.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  31/1800Z 12.0N  89.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 60H  01/0600Z 12.0N  89.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  01/1800Z 11.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  02/1800Z 10.0N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  03/1800Z  9.0N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Blake