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WTPZ44 KNHC 300834

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

 

There has been little change with Pilar overnight.  The storm is 

still producing a concentrated area of deep convection, but 

microwave data suggest that the low-level center is located near the 

southeastern edge of the thunderstorms.  The latest satellite 

intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, but an ASCAT pass from a 

few hours ago showed maximum reliable winds closer to 30 kt.  Based 

on a blend of all of these data, the initial intensity is held at 35 

kt.



Pilar is moving slowly to the east-northeast, and that motion should 

continue for the next couple of days.  Nearly all of the models 

stall Pilar near the coast of Central America on Tuesday and Tuesday 

night, but at this point the reliable models keep the core of the 

storm offshore.  On Wednesday, Pilar will likely turn southwestward 

away from land as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the 

system.  The cyclone will likely accelerate westward after that in 

part due to an anticipated Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.  Only 

small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast and this 

one lies fairly close to the consensus aids.



The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen during the next day 

or so as it remains over warm SSTs and in relatively favorable 

atmospheric conditions.  Pilar is expected to be near hurricane 

strength when it is close to the coast of Central America.  

However, beyond that time, the slow motion of the system could 

cause ocean upwelling and the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event 

will likely result in an increase in shear and intrusions of dry 

and stable air.  Therefore, a weakening trend is forecast beginning 

late Tuesday or early Wednesday.  The NHC intensity forecast lies 

at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls closer 

to the middle of the guidance envelope from 72-120 hours.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding, 

along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast 

of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through 

Wednesday.

 

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday 

along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and 

Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. 

Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala,

and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system as

additional watches or warnings could be needed later today.

 

3. Swells generated by Pilar will begin to affect portions

of the Pacific coast of Central America later today.  These swells 

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 

conditions.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/0900Z 11.0N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  30/1800Z 11.1N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  31/0600Z 11.6N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  31/1800Z 12.0N  89.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  01/0600Z 12.0N  89.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  01/1800Z 11.7N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  02/0600Z 11.1N  91.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  03/0600Z  9.8N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  04/0600Z  9.3N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi