####018003177####
WTPZ44 KNHC 302045

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

 

Pilar seems to have held somewhat steady this afternoon.  1-minute 

geostationary satellite visible imagery shows the low-level 

circulation beginning to be exposed just east of the deep convection 

as the central deep overcast gradually clears.  Recent microwave 

imagery revealed a decent curved band wrapping around the western 

and northern portions of the core.  Subjective and objective 

satellite intensity estimates range from 39-51 kt and the initial 

intensity is held at 45 kt, closest to the SAB T3.0/45 kt value.

 

The storm continues to move slowly east-northeastward.  Models 

generally agree on this motion, which should continue for the next 

day or so.  By Tuesday evening, Pilar is forecast to stall near the 

coast of El Salvador with the core of the storm offshore.  By 

Wednesday the storm is expected to turn west-southwestward, away 

from the coastline, in the flow of a building ridge over the western 

Caribbean and Central America.  The latest NHC track forecast is 

shifted slightly north of the previous prediction, largely due to 

the northward shift in the initial position.

 

Moderate east-southeasterly shear appears to be affecting Pilar.  

However, most of the model guidance indicates that the storm should 

steadily strengthen for the next day or so over the warm waters and 

in a moist airmass.  After 36 h, the deep-layer shear should 

increase which will likely induce a weakening trend. By days 3-5, 

the shear is expected to abate somewhat.  Once again, the long-range 

official intensity forecast has been increased slightly and is close 

to the various consensus aids.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,

along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, near the Pacific

coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica

through Wednesday.

 

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday

along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and

Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests

elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should

monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or

warnings could be needed later tonight.

 

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific

coast of Central America during the next few days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/2100Z 11.4N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  31/0600Z 11.6N  90.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  31/1800Z 11.9N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  01/0600Z 12.3N  89.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  01/1800Z 12.2N  89.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 60H  02/0600Z 11.8N  91.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  02/1800Z 11.2N  93.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  03/1800Z 10.1N  98.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  04/1800Z  9.9N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci