####018003436####
WTPZ44 KNHC 310241

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023



Pilar has not strengthened this evening.  In fact, the system looks 

less organized on satellite images with the center becoming exposed 

on the southern side of a ragged-looking area of deep convection.  

There are some poorly-defined banding features over the western 

portion of the circulation, and the upper-level outflow does not 

appear to be very pronounced.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from 

TAFB and SAB are 3.0 which corresponds to 45 kt, and objective 

satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased a bit 

from earlier today.  The intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for 

this advisory.



The initial motion estimate is slowly east-northeastward, or 070/4 

kt, which is about the same as in the previous advisory.  There is 

currently a weakness in the ridge to the northeast of Pilar which is 

apparently inducing the east-northeastward motion.  This movement is 

expected to continue a little while longer, bringing the center of 

the cyclone closer to the coast on Tuesday.  Over the next few days, 

a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast and north of 

the system.  This steering evolution should cause Pilar to make a 

sharp turn and move west-southwestward away from the coast beginning 

Wednesday.  A continued west-southwestward to westward track is 

likely for the rest of the forecast period.  The official track 

forecast is close to the model consensus, and does not bring the 

center of Pilar closer to the coast than previously forecast.



Although moderate vertical wind shear is likely to continue 

affecting Pilar, a moist and unstable air mass along with warm ocean 

waters should allow some strengthening during the next day or so.  

Later in the forecast period, easterly shear could inhibit 

strengthening.  The official intensity forecast is a blend of the 

simple and corrected model consensus predictions.





Key Messages:

 

1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding, 

along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast 

of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through 

Wednesday.

 

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday

along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and

Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests

elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should

monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or

warnings could be needed tomorrow. 

 

3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific

coast of Central America during the next few days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  31/0300Z 11.3N  90.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  31/1200Z 11.4N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  01/0000Z 11.7N  89.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  01/1200Z 11.9N  90.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  02/0000Z 11.6N  91.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 60H  02/1200Z 11.1N  92.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  03/0000Z 10.5N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  04/0000Z  9.3N 100.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  05/0000Z  9.3N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch