####018002785####
WTPZ44 KNHC 012041

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023

 

Convection over and near Pilar's low-level circulation continues to

flare periodically.  A recent burst of convection has obscured the

center on visible satellite imagery.  Satellite intensity estimates

have trended downward this cycle, with 45 kt from TAFB and SAB

and a range of 33-49 kt from various objective estimates.  The

initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on these values.

 

Pilar is accelerating westward with an estimated motion of 270/9

kt.  This general motion with an increase in forward speed is

forecast for the next few days as the storm is steered along the

south side of a mid-level ridge.  The model guidance has

accelerated again from the previous advisory.  The latest forecast

track is a blend of the prior prediction and the latest simple and

corrected consensus aids.

 

Moderate deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to persist for

at least another 24 hours.  While the shear decreases beyond a day,

Pilar will likely encounter a drier, more stable airmass associated

with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.  These environmental

conditions, along with cooler, upwelled ocean waters should result

in a gradual weaken trend as indicated by the majority of the

dynamical intensity guidance.  The official intensity forecast

reflects this scenario and is closest to the simple model consensus. 

There remains the possibility that Pilar could weaken sooner and 

become a post-tropical cyclone or open into a trough.  However, the 

official forecast conservatively maintains a 5-day forecast for now.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Additional heavy rainfall from Pilar will produce flash and urban

flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the

Pacific coast of Central America from southern El Salvador, across

southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica

through today.

 

2. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific

coast of Central America during the next day or two.  These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  01/2100Z 12.4N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  02/0600Z 12.0N  93.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  02/1800Z 11.1N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  03/0600Z 10.2N  99.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  03/1800Z  9.5N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  04/0600Z  9.3N 105.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 72H  04/1800Z  9.4N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  05/1800Z 10.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  06/1800Z 10.9N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci