####018002977####
WTPZ44 KNHC 020838

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

 

After a lull in convective activity last night, a small area of deep 

convection has developed and persisted with Pilar early this 

morning. The center of the compact storm is located underneath a 

small cold dense overcast, and the latest satellite intensity 

estimates have risen as a result of this improved convective 

structure. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory, 

in best agreement with a T3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak classification 

from TAFB and a 45-kt SATCON estimate.

 

Pilar is accelerating westward away from land (265 degrees/12 kt). 

As a mid-level ridge continues building to the north and northwest 

of Pilar, the storm is expected to move faster to the west-southwest 

during the next couple of days. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough 

is forecast to move across the Baja California peninsula and weaken 

the steering ridge. As a result, Pilar should slow down and turn 

toward the west and west-northwest early next week. In general, 

there is good agreement among the models on the future track of 

Pilar, with more of the differences in the along-track direction. 

Once again, the official NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 

previous prediction based on the latest TVCE and HCCA aids.

 

Pilar is near a strong band of low-level northerly winds associated 

with an ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event. The gap wind flow could 

introduce some drier air into Pilar's circulation and/or briefly 

disrupt its convective organization. Otherwise, the storm is 

forecast to move over warm waters in a generally weak to moderate 

shear environment through this weekend. There is more spread noted 

in the intensity guidance at 48-72 h. Some of the regional hurricane 

models (HWRF, HAFS-A) show strengthening during this period, while 

the global models and other regional guidance (HMON, HAFS-B) show 

little change or some weakening. Given the higher initial intensity 

and guidance trends this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is slightly 

stronger than the previous one through the first few days of the 

period. But overall, little change in strength is forecast during 

the next few days. As Pilar gains latitude at days 4-5, it should 

encounter stronger southwesterly shear and weaken more.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  02/0900Z 12.3N  94.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  02/1800Z 11.5N  96.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  03/0600Z 10.6N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  03/1800Z 10.0N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  04/0600Z  9.9N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 60H  04/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  05/0600Z 10.3N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  06/0600Z 11.3N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  07/0600Z 12.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Reinhart