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WTPZ44 KNHC 022036

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023

 

Pilar has not changed much during the past several hours.  The storm 

continues to produce a ragged area of deep convection that lacks 

banding features with dry and stable air, associated with the 

ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, intruding into the 

circulation.  Despite this steady state appearance, a recent ASCAT-C 

pass showed peak winds between 45 and 50 kt, and therefore, the 

initial intensity is nudged back up to 50 kt.  This value is above 

the latest Dvorak classifications.  Pilar is quite compact with its 

tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend up to 60 n mi 

from the center and its overall deep cloud field only extending a 

little more than 100 n mi across.



The environmental conditions around Pilar during the next few days 

are marginal.  Although SSTs are warm, the vertical wind shear is 

expected to be moderate and dry air in the vicinity of the cyclone 

could continue to intrude into the circulation.  The net result will 

likely be fluctuations in strength through the weekend.  By early 

next week, however, Pilar is expected to move into a region of 

stronger shear, and that should result in a weakening trend.  The 

NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, mostly based 

on the initial intensity, and lies near the middle of the guidance 

envelope.



The storm is moving just south of due west at 14 kt.  A continued 

swift west-southwestward to westward motion is expected during the 

next day or two while the system remains steered by a low- to 

mid-level ridge to its northwest.  After that time, a slow down and 

a westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted as the ridge 

breaks down and the weakening system moves in the low- to mid-level 

flow.  The track models are in relatively good agreement, and little 

change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.



 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  02/2100Z 11.6N  96.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  03/0600Z 10.9N  99.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  03/1800Z 10.4N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  04/0600Z 10.3N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  04/1800Z 10.5N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  05/0600Z 10.7N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  05/1800Z 11.2N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  06/1800Z 12.3N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  07/1800Z 13.6N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi