####018002896####
WTPZ44 KNHC 030836

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

400 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

 

Deep convection over the center of Pilar has collapsed this morning. 

The low-level circulation of the compact storm is exposed, and only 

small areas of convective activity are noted well away from the 

center. These changes are likely the result of some dry air 

intrusions and westerly shear over the small cyclone. Given its 

lackluster satellite presentation, and its increased distance from 

the enhanced background flow associated with a gap wind event, it is 

assumed that some weakening has occurred overnight. Thus, the 

initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt.

 

Pilar is moving quickly west-southwestward (255/19 kt), steered by a 

combination of the low-level northeasterly gap wind flow and the 

flow associated with a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of 

the storm. A weakness is expected to develop in this ridge during 

the next couple of days as a mid-level trough/cut-off low moves 

toward the Baja California peninsula. This weakness in the ridge 

should cause Pilar to gradually slow down and turn toward the west 

and west-northwest through early next week. The track guidance is in 

reasonably good agreement on this scenario. The latest NHC track 

forecast generally remains between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, 

and this prediction is very similar to the previous one.

 

The westerly shear and bouts of dry air entrainment are likely to 

continue over the next couple of days. The latest GFS and ECMWF 

simulated satellite imagery does show convection returning with 

Pilar later this morning, but it also suggests that its convective 

structure may continue fluctuating in the coming days. Since Pilar 

is a small storm, it will be more susceptible to disruptions from 

the marginal environmental conditions. Although Pilar will remain 

over very warm waters, the intensity guidance generally shows little 

change in strength through the weekend, and the NHC forecast follows 

suit. As Pilar gains latitude at days 3-5, the cyclone is expected 

to weaken as it encounters stronger southwesterly shear. In fact, 

this forecast shows Pilar degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by the 

end of the period.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  03/0900Z 10.4N 101.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  03/1800Z 10.0N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  04/0600Z  9.7N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  04/1800Z  9.8N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  05/0600Z 10.1N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  05/1800Z 10.5N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  06/0600Z 11.3N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  07/0600Z 13.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Reinhart