####018002530####
WTPZ44 KNHC 031447

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  24

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

 

Deep convection has re-developed over Pilar this morning. Multiple 

microwave images depict that the low-level center is poorly 

organized.  This disruption in organization is likely due to 

westerly shear. The pulsing nature of the convective structure of 

Pilar continues to impact satellite intensity estimates, with those 

estimates slightly decreased for this cycle. The initial intensity 

leans toward the Dvorak CI-numbers, which was a 3.0 from TAFB. With 

convection bursting once again and the Dvorak CI values, this 

supports keeping the initial intensity steady at 45 kt.

 

Pilar is moving swiftly west-southwestward (255/18 kt), steered by a 

mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system.  A 

mid-level trough is forecast to approach the Baja California 

peninsula this weekend, which will cause the ridge to weaken, and 

Pilar should gradually slow down and turn to the west and 

west-northwest through early next week. The track guidance remains 

in fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward 

speed of Pilar. The NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 

previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.

 

The convective structure of Pilar continues to fluctuate, with a

pulsing convective burst from time-to-time. Given the small size of 

Pilar, intensity fluctuations are possible throughout the forecast 

period as the system will be more susceptible within varying 

environmental conditions. The intensity forecast shows very little 

change in the intensity through the weekend. In about 3 days, as 

Pilar moves northwestward, the system is expected to encounter 

strong southwesterly shear and will weaken. Global models are in 

fairly good agreement that Pilar will become a remnant low by the 

end of the period. 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  03/1500Z 10.2N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  04/0000Z  9.9N 105.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  04/1200Z  9.8N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  05/0000Z 10.0N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  05/1200Z 10.4N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  06/0000Z 11.1N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  06/1200Z 11.8N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  07/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  08/1200Z 14.9N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly