####018002098#### WTPZ44 KNHC 032034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 400 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023 Deep convection associated with Pilar continues to pulse, and it still lacks banding features. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 35-40 kt range. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt. Pilar remains a very compact storm and is only producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds north of the center. The storm is moving quickly westward at about 17 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the storm should keep Pilar on a westward path during the next couple of days. After that time, a turn to the west-northwest or northwest is predicted as the ridge breaks down. There is quite a bit of spread in the models with the GFS on the far right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the far left side. The NHC track forecast leans closer to the left side of the guidance since Pilar is expected to be a weakening system and will more likely move in the low-level flow. Pilar will likely fluctuate in strength during the next couple of days while it remains in marginal environmental conditions. After that time, however, an increase in southerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a weakening trend. Pilar is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 9.9N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.0N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.2N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 10.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 11.4N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.1N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 13.8N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 15.5N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi