####018003265####
WTPZ44 KNHC 040240

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

900 PM MDT Fri Nov 03 2023

 

Pilar is not much to look at tonight. The deep convective activity 

near the center has been on a downward swing, though there are a few 

convective clusters starting to redevelop close to the estimated 

low-level center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass on the 37-GHz 

channel also suggested that, compared to yesterday, the low-level 

banding features have become more diffuse. Satellite intensity 

estimates continue to range from 30 to 40 kt, and given the earlier 

scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt, though 

this may be generous. 



Small Pilar seems to be struggling in its current environment, which 

is honestly not all that unfavorable, with light to moderate 

westerly vertical wind shear, and plenty warm sea-surface 

temperatures. However, the proximity of nearby dry air surrounding 

the storm has continued to periodically snuff out its convection, 

preventing much organization. Thus, the forecast continues to show 

the storm maintaining its current intensity, assuming dry air will 

continue to keep the small cyclone in check. After 36 h, shear 

begins to increase further, and weakening after that point is 

forecasted. The latest NHC intensity forecast show Pilar weakening 

into a remnant low by 72 h with dissipation by 120 h, but both of 

these statuses could occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the 

ECMWF model. 



Pilar continues to move south of due west, with an initial motion of 

260/15 kt. A well-established mid-level ridge located north of the 

storm should continue to steer the tropical cyclone westward for the 

next few days, though with gradual slowing of its forward motion as 

the ridge begins to become eroded by a deep-layer trough located 

near the Baja California Peninsula. This should ultimately result in 

a bit more poleward motion in Pilar into early next week. Once 

again, there is a large amount of track spread, mostly related to 

how vertically deep Pilar remains in the model guidance. The GFS 

continues to be steadfast in maintaining Pilar as a vertically deep 

cyclone, and turns the system more northwestward as the trough 

weakness develops. The ECWMF (and the vast majority of its 

ensembles) ultimately decouple its mid-level circulation from the 

low-level one, resulting in a faster and more westward track. The 

NHC track forecast favors the latter scenario, which also is closer 

to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. This forecast is just a touch 

further south and west compared to the prior one.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  04/0300Z  9.9N 106.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  04/1200Z  9.7N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  05/0000Z  9.9N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  05/1200Z 10.5N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  06/0000Z 11.1N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  06/1200Z 11.8N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 72H  07/0000Z 12.4N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  08/0000Z 14.0N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Papin