####018002532####
WTPZ44 KNHC 041451

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

900 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

 

Pilar's satellite presentation consists of a ragged cloud pattern

with a few new bursts of deep convection near surface center.  The

initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory and is based

on a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB

and SAB, and a recent SATCON analysis from UW-CIMSS.

 

Dry, stable marine-layer mid-level air continues to prevent Pilar 

from maintaining organized deep convection, and this negative 

atmospheric contribution is expected to linger during the next 

several days.  Additionally, southwesterly shear is forecast to

increase during the next 36 hours, and this should induce a

weakening trend by Monday.  Small intensity fluctuations are

still possible through the weekend, although the official forecast

does not explicitly indicate it.  The intensity forecast follows the

various consensus intensity aids closely and indicates that Pilar

will become a remnant low in 60 hours and open up into a trough in 

4 days or less.

 

Pilar's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt,

and is being steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north.

Global and regional models suggest that the above-mentioned

mid-tropospheric ridge will weaken near the Baja California

peninsula during the next day or so.  This change in the synoptic

steering pattern should cause a reduction in the cyclone's forward

speed while gradually turning Pilar west-northwestward and

northwestward by Monday.  There remains an increase in

across-track spread in the global models, specifically with the GFS

lying to the far right side of the guidance envelope beyond 36

hours, and the ECMWF on the far left side.  The official forecast is

nudged toward the left side of the guidance suite and is close to

the NOAA HFIP HCCA corrected consensus model and the previous

forecast.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  04/1500Z 10.2N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  05/0000Z 10.3N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  05/1200Z 10.7N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  06/0000Z 11.3N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  06/1200Z 12.0N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  07/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  07/1200Z 13.9N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Roberts