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WTPZ44 KNHC 042034

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

300 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

 

Pilar continues to exhibit a central dense overcast pattern, and 

outer banding features have become a little better defined during 

the past several hours.  The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 

SAB have increased to 3.0/45 kt.  However, an ASCAT-B pass from a 

few hours ago showed peak winds around 35 kt over a small area in 

the northwestern quadrant.  Based on a compromise of these data, the 

initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but it is possible that Pilar 

could be a little stronger.



The environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for 

strengthening during the next day or so, and the models generally 

show a little increase in Pilar's winds during that time.  By early 

Monday, however, the storm will be moving into an area of strong 

vertical wind shear and notably drier air.  These factors should 

result in a weakening trend, and Pilar will likely become a remnant 

low late Monday or early Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a 

touch higher than the previous one in the short term, and lies near 

the middle of the guidance envelope.



Pilar is moving westward at 14 kt on the southwest side of a 

mid-level ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest and then the 

northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed are forecast 

as the ridge breaks down.  Although the models generally agree on 

the large-scale pattern, there are significant differences on how 

vertically deep Pilar will be, which affects how much latitude the 

storm gains.  The GFS remains the model on the far right side while 

the ECMWF is on the far left side of the guidance.  Since Pilar is 

expected to weaken early next week, the NHC track forecast continues 

to favor the left side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement 

with the ECMWF and HCCA models.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  04/2100Z 10.4N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  05/0600Z 10.6N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  05/1800Z 11.1N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  06/0600Z 11.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  06/1800Z 12.7N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  07/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  07/1800Z 14.6N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi