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WTPZ44 KNHC 050232

TCDEP4

 

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  30

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023

900 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023

 

Pilar has become a little better organized this evening.  There has 

been an overall increase in banding and a couple of microwave 

passes around 0000 UTC revealed a little better inner core 

structure.  Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were a 

unanimous T3.0 (45 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMMS range 

from 41 to 53 kt.  Using a blend of these estimates, the initial 

wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for this advisory. 



Low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the path of Pilar could 

allow for some additional strengthening overnight.  Most of the 

intensity guidance indeed calls for some modest strengthening, and 

the official forecast follow suit. By late Sunday, however, 

increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to put an 

end to any further intensification.  A more significant increase in 

southwesterly shear is predicted Sunday night and Monday, and 

steady weakening is anticipated during that time.  The small 

tropical cyclone is likely to succumb to these unfavorable 

conditions, and Pilar is forecast to become a remnant low in 2-3 

days, and dissipate shortly thereafter. 



Pilar is still moving westward, but at a slightly slower forward 

speed of 12 kt.  A turn to the west-northwest and then northwest 

with a further reduction in forward speed is expected during the 

next 24-36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar weakens. 

There are still some differences in the dynamical guidance on how 

vertically deep Pilar will remain, which affects how much latitude 

the storm gains.  Since the NHC forecast calls for weakening to 

commence by late tomorrow, the NHC track forecast favors the 

southern side of the guidance.  The official forecast is in best 

agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid, which is a little 

south of the simple, multi-model consensus track. 



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  05/0300Z 10.5N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 10.8N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  06/0000Z 11.5N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  06/1200Z 12.3N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  07/0000Z 13.2N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  07/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  08/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Brown