####018003784####
WTNT42 KNHC 162048

TCDAT2

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023

400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

 

NHC has been monitoring the development of a broad area of low

pressure over the western Caribbean Sea during the past several

days.  Satellite images and recent data from an Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low has a closed but 

broad circulation, and there is no evidence yet of a well-defined 

center.  Elongated bands of deep convection extend over much of 

the eastern part of the circulation and are streaming northward 

toward portions of the Greater Antilles.  Since the system is 

forecast to become a tropical storm, and there is a risk of 

tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Greater Antilles, 

southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 

couple of days, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical 

Cyclone Twenty-Two.



The initial motion is uncertain since the system does not yet have 

a well-defined center, but the overall cloud system appears to be 

moving generally north-northeastward, or 015/8 kt.  The disturbance 

is forecast to turn northeastward by tonight due to a broad 

mid-level trough located over Florida and the adjacent waters.  A 

continued northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is 

then expected through the weekend as the system becomes 

increasingly picked up by the trough.  Although there is a bit 

uncertainty in the forecast track since there is not yet a center 

to track, the model guidance is in generally good agreement on this 

scenario.  The NHC track forecast blends the latest TVCA and HCCA 

consensus aids.



The system's broad nature, increasing southerly shear, and nearby 

dry air suggest that it likely won't strengthen much.  That said, 

the disturbance could become a tropical depression or tropical storm 

tonight or on Friday if the circulation can contract enough for a 

well-defined center to form.  Conditions should be sufficiently 

conducive to allow for modest strengthening, and the NHC intensity 

forecast is just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  Most 

global model fields indicate the cyclone should become extratropical 

over the western Atlantic in about 3 days, and then become absorbed 

by a front by day 5.



The most significant hazard from this system is likely to be heavy 

rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of 

Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.





KEY MESSAGES:



1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a 

tropical storm on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 

across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, 

and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical 

storm watches are now in effect for these areas.



2.  Heavy rains will affect portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, 

southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning.  This 

rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides 

in areas of higher terrain.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  16/2100Z 15.2N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  17/0600Z 15.7N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

 24H  17/1800Z 17.0N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  18/0600Z 19.2N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  18/1800Z 21.9N  73.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  19/0600Z 25.3N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  19/1800Z 29.4N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  20/1800Z 38.0N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Berg