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WTPZ45 KNHC 240231

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023

700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

 

The depression has been producing a limited amount of deep

convection during the past several hours as it continues to feel

the influence of westerly vertical wind shear and dry air

entrainment.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which

lies near the lower end of the latest Dvorak estimates.

 

The system has been wobbling around since it formed, but the

average motion during the past 6 to 12 hours is west-northwestward

at 8 kt.  A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected

during the next few days as the cyclone moves in weak steering

flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level

trough to its northwest.  Beyond that time, the weak and shallow

system should turn more westward within the low-level flow.  The NHC

track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left, trending

toward the middle of the guidance envelope.

 

The ragged appearance of the system, lack of deep convection, and

entrainment of dry air suggests that little or no strengthening is

likely during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, the models show

upper-level diffluence briefly increasing over the system Friday

night and Saturday, which could result in an increase in deep

convection and perhaps a little strengthening.  However, strong

vertical wind shear and even drier air should end the opportunity

for strengthening on Sunday, and lead to the system becoming a

remnant low.  All of the global models show the low dissipating

entirely in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is in line

with the majority of the guidance.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/0300Z 12.6N 122.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  24/1200Z 13.2N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  26/0000Z 15.5N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  26/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  27/0000Z 16.4N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  28/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi