####018002015####
WTPZ45 KNHC 240837

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023

100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

 

Another round of deep convection has formed within the southeastern 

quadrant of the circulation, and the high-level cirrus has expanded 

westward, mostly obscuring the depression's center.  With final-T 

numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity 

remains 30 kt.



The depression has turned northwestward, skirting along the 

southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone, with an initial 

motion of 315/7 kt.  A mid-level trough is expected to develop near 

the depression during the next couple of days, causing the cyclone 

to slow down and turn northward or north-northeastward.  The new 

NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast with the 

latest TVCE consensus, requiring another slight westward shift to 

the left.



With the aforementioned trough digging near the depression, the 20 

kt of west-northwesterly shear current affecting the system is 

forecast increase to about 50 kt of westerly shear in about 48 

hours.  As a result, little change in intensity is expected during 

the next couple of days, but that doesn't rule out a brief period 

as a tropical storm if the system can maintain convection near the 

center.  The increasing shear is likely, however, to ultimately 

cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours and 

dissipate in about 4 days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/0900Z 13.0N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 60H  26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Berg