####018002454####
WTPZ45 KNHC 250845

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023

100 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

 

Ramon's center popped out from under the earlier convective

activity during the past few hours, although new convection is now

forming near the center.  An ASCAT-C pass from around 06 UTC

verified that maximum winds are 35 kt and also showed that the

storm has a tiny circulation, with tropical-storm-force winds only

extending 20 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle.

 

The more visible center and scatterometer data aided in adjusting

the best track a little farther north, and Ramon's motion is

estimated to be just west of due north, or 350/4 kt.  An even

slower northward or north-northeastward motion is expected during

the next 24 hours while Ramon is caught in weak steering between a

mid-level ridge to the east and a broad mid-latitude trough to the

north.  After 24 hours, a weaker and shallower Ramon is forecast to

turn west-northwestward and accelerate, steered by a lower-level

ridge to its north.  The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted

a bit north and west of the previous track to account for the

initial center repositioning and blends the latest TVCE and HCCA

consensus guidance.

 

SHIPS diagnostics indicate that although the westerly shear

affecting Ramon will remain strong and gradually increase,

upper-level divergence is likely to increase and could give the

storm an opportunity to strengthen slightly in the very short term.

The 12-hour NHC intensity forecast reflects this possibility and

follows the HCCA corrected consensus aid.  However, the upper-level

environment becomes more convergent just after 24 hours, with

westerly shear increasing to near 50 kt.  Those conditions should

lead to quick weakening, with Ramon expected to become a remnant low

by 48 hours, if not sooner.  Global models then show the remnant low

dissipating by 72 hours.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  25/0900Z 14.6N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  25/1800Z 15.0N 122.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  26/0600Z 15.2N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  26/1800Z 15.3N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  27/0600Z 15.5N 123.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  27/1800Z 16.1N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Berg