####018002032####
WTPZ45 KNHC 252040

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023

100 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

 

Ramon has changed little through the day.  There have been a few

deep bursts of convection that continue to partially obscure the

surface circulation.  Satellite-derived surface wind speed data

showed peak winds between 33-34 kt.  Therefore, the initial

intensity is held at 35 kt, keeping Ramon at tropical storm status

for now.

 

The storm is drifting in weak steering currents at an estimated 

015/2 kt.  Ramon is between a mid-level ridge to the east and a 

mid-latitude trough to the north, which will cause a slow 

north-northeast to north motion through the remainder of today. By 

Sunday, a weaker, more shallow cyclone is forecast to turn 

west-northwestward and gradually accelerate along the southern edge 

of a building ridge to the north.  The latest NHC track forecast is 

slightly east of the previous forecast for the first 12 h, and lies 

between the consensus aids to the south and the previous forecast to 

the north at 24 h and beyond.

 

Strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue to affect Ramon

for the remainder of the forecast period.  While upper-level

divergence may enhance convection for the remainder of the day, the

environment is forecast to become more convergent aloft this

evening.  The hostile winds and surrounding dry airmass should cause

Ramon to weaken and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner.

The official forecast still shows the storm dissipating by early

next week.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  25/2100Z 15.3N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  26/0600Z 15.4N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  26/1800Z 15.6N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  27/0600Z 15.7N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  27/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci