####018003070####
WTPZ45 KNHC 260240

TCDEP5

 

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023

700 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023



On geostationary satellite imagery, Ramon has taken on the 

appearance of a highly sheared tropical cyclone, with bursts of deep 

convection forming near the center that have continually been 

stripped away. Despite this pattern, there is evidence that  

upper-level divergence has aided in convective generation today, 

with the GOES-18 mesoscale sector derived motions winds showing 

250-350 mb flow fanning off in a V-shape pattern along the eastern 

flank of the cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C pass received after 

the prior advisory suggested that Ramon was a bit stronger than 

previously estimated, with a fairly large swath of greater than 35 

kt winds over its northern semicircle, though the highest values may 

have been rain inflated. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 2152 UTC also 

showed a prominent curved band on the 37 GHz channel along where 

these highest winds were observed earlier on scatterometer. Based on 

this information, the initial intensity is adjusted to 40 kt for 

this advisory. This value is a little higher than the subjective 

Dvorak estimates, but does match the most recent SATCON intensity 

estimate from UW-CIMSS. 



Ramon is already battling some very hostile westerly vertical wind 

shear above 40 kt, and this is only forecast to increase further 

over the next 12-24 hours. The divergent upper-level flow is also 

forecast to quickly bypass the storm. Thus, the ongoing convection 

is expected to fully detach from the low-level circulation later 

tonight, and weakening should begin shortly. Ramon is still expected 

to become a remnant low in a day or two, with the low opening up 

into a trough not long beyond that. Aside from the short-term 

intensity, the latest forecast is close to the previous one, and is 

in good agreement with the consensus aids.  



The ongoing convective bursts may have temporarily caused Ramon to 

jog east this evening, though as the low-level circulation starts to 

become detached, a slow westward drift may be starting, estimated at 

260/1 kt. While the cyclone may continue to drift slowly tonight, by 

tomorrow, a bit faster westward to west-northwestward motion should 

begin as the cyclone is steered by a weak low-level ridge. The NHC 

track forecast is a bit south and east of the previous one, 

partially due to adjustments in the initial potion, but ends up 

close to the prior track forecast in 36-48 h, close to the simple 

and corrected consensus aids. 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  26/0300Z 14.8N 122.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  26/1200Z 14.8N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  27/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  27/1200Z 15.0N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  28/0000Z 15.7N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Papin