####018002085#### WTPZ45 KNHC 260835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023 Deep convection associated with Ramon became well separated from the low-level center around the time of the previous advisory due to strong westerly shear. Since that time, the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt. That is in agreement with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) number of 2.5 from TAFB. The vertical wind shear over Ramon is already above 50 kt as diagnosed by the SHIPS model, and it is expected to remain very strong during the next 48 hours. The shear in combination with an increasingly dry mid-level environment should cause Ramon to quickly weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model does not show any deep convection returning, and based on the latest trends, the official forecast now calls for Ramon to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and dissipate within 48 hours. Ramon has taken a southwestward jog overnight, but it should begin a more westward motion this morning as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. A westward to west- northwestward motion should then continue for the next day or so until dissipation occurs. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted south of the previous prediction primarily due to the more southern initial position. The official track forecast is in best agreement with the latest GFS and the TVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 14.4N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 14.3N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0600Z 14.4N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 14.7N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown